BIL IMMO Index - 4th quarter 2015

Developed in collaboration with PwC Luxembourg, the BIL IMMO Index enables professional, institutional and private investors to immediately grasp the trends of the housing market on the basis of economic ratios and precise methodological analysis. The index provides, on a scale of -3 (cold) to +3 (hot), a synthetic view of the Luxembourg housing market that relies on changes of seven weighted ratios to indicate a trend.

The BIL IMMO Index, updated on a semi-annual basis and available at www.bil.com, offers an historic perspective on the past 35 years of the Luxembourg housing market and features indicators that identify trends related to the core of the industry and the national economy.

Discover more on the BIL website

bil

The BIL Immo Index in the 4th quarter of 2015

Source: PwC Market Research Centre

  • Throughout 2015, housing prices continued to rise by 5.4%, but the recent trend is moderation; between Q3 and Q4 2015, registered prices declined by 0.3%, with some disparity between new and existing dwelling prices. Indeed, prices of new dwellings increased by 0.4% during Q4 2015 (quarterly growth), while prices of existing dwellings decreased by 0.8% (quarterly growth).
  • Between 2014 and 2015, rents rose in a regular manner by 1.8% year-on-year1 (this takes into account the old leases as new contracts). Rents on newly leased apartments rose a further 2.4% in Q4 2015 year-on-year2. In total, the ratio of prices/rent tended to increase during 2015, but at a slower pace.
  • With very low inflation in 2015 (0.5% between 2014 and 2015), the real housing price appreciation is strong, but it must also be interpreted with regard to the evolution of favourable economic conditions (4.8% real GDP growth between 2014 and 2015).

The Index was driven down due to the following:

  • There was a slight increase in construction activity compared to overall economic activity, although the confidence indicator in construction remained on an upward trend in 20153.
  • The decline in our index is also the result of the relatively low evolution of mortgage volume in the residential sector in Q4 compared to that of the overall economy. That said, the figures on mortgages for the first quarter of 2016 appear to be significantly higher, which could move the index upward in 2016.
  • Finally, the index is down sharply because of the decline in the number of building permits compared to demographic dynamism. In 2015, about 3900 building permits were issued, while the number of inhabitants ages 20 to 69 years increased by nearly 106,000 in the same year, an increase of approximately 4,400 households5.

Overall, the market remains positive. The limited supply of dwellings and a recent moderation in housing prices are contributing to bringing the BIL IMMO Index into balance.

Regional Analysis

The lack of regional data does not permit the calculation of an index by region, as regional analysis is based on cross-analysis of the following variables:

  • Demographics: population and demographic growth
  • Prices advertised for the sale of houses and apartments
  • Price advertised for rental homes and apartments

The regional analysis below is based on population data as of 1 January 2016, and the prices announced up to Q4 2015, as well as their recent developments. Price dynamics in each region are compared to national dynamics, and are crossed with demographic change. Risk levels are weighted 1 to 5, and the interpretation is as follows:

  • Level 1: negligible risk of contraction in short-term price
  • Level 2: low risk of contraction in short-term price
  • Level 3: moderate risk of contraction in prices
  • Level 4: average risk of contraction in prices
  • Level 5: risk sustained contraction of prices

On the proposed scale, no region is currently estimated at a 4 or 5 risk of contraction in prices. The risks are negligible to moderate.

Please hover over the map to view our BIL IMMO Index analysis per region

The sources used are STATEC for demographics and the Observatory of Housing for the prices advertised for sale and to rent. Other elements such as regional economic dynamism and the number of completed residential buildings can be considered according to the availability of relevant data.

This data should be considered with caution since prices for sale and rent are advertised prices. In addition, the real estate market in Luxembourg reveals significant variations from one quarter to the next.


Notes:

1. STATEC, indice des loyers d’habitation réels
2. Observatoire de l’Habitat, prix annoncés à la location d’appartements
3. STATEC, indicateur de confiance dans la construction
4. STATEC, autorisations de bâtir : nombre d’appartements et nombre de maisons
5. Estimations basée sur la taille moyenne des ménages privés (2.41 personnes en 2011, donnée la plus récente).

Contact us

Dariush Yazdani

Grégory Weber

Xavier Domalain